World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Belgium - Kayo (Blitz)

Kayo

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthias Verbeeck

1st • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.2

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Toon Borremans (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs simon haesaerts (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Quentin fallais (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Sébastien Spilliaert (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Kenny Van Rompaey (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Kenny Van Rompaey (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Warre Sevens (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Quinten de Jongh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.39
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R4	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.61
R6	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.86
R8	Blitz	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonathan Van den Wyngaerde

15th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Christof Ackaert (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs simon haesaerts (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Matthias Keisse (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Steven Vanbecelaere (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthias Keisse

22nd • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Kenny Van Rompaey (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Toon Borremans (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Mishima (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Van den Wyngaerde (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Christof Ackaert (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Rotsaert (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Blitz	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.52
R6	Blitz	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.