National Championship 2025 - Norway - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC) - FaB-Results

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Audun Årnes (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 83:17

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Olstad (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Torbjørn Tollaksen

dropped • 1-1-1

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Egil Sæbøe-Larssen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28

Dorinthea Ironsong

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christian Johnsen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adrian Fjell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Draw	✓	0.72	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.36
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.