Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2025 - South Korea
Puffin, Hightail
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jung Ryoukwang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37
Round 2: Win vs TAEHO KWON (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs In GwangYeol (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs suk kyo suh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs JISU HAN (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.