Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at National Championship 2025 - South Korea
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
22nd • 1-5-0
50%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hangjune "Shu" Cho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 60:40
Round 2: Loss vs ko yunsik (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs myung hyun Tak (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 43:57
Round 7: Loss vs Clayton Gowen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs JISU HAN (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Kyeong Pil Baek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.