World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Sweden - Kayo (Blitz)

Kayo

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nic Palm

5th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Emilia Mattsson (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Sandén (Cindra) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Fredrik Bill (Cindra) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Péter Kökény (Florian) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Lewis Day (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Nicolas Heiden (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Joel Halvars (Verdance) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R2	Blitz	Cindra	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Blitz	Cindra	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Blitz	Florian	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.87
R5	Blitz	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Blitz	Verdance	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Klas Bergholtz

12th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Baranzano (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Ålund (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Andrej Erdelsky (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Moynagh (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Gravy Bones	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Blitz	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Data Doll MKII	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Data Doll MKII	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Magnusson

14th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Christofer Lindholm (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Haugmo (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Lewis Day (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Emilia Mattsson (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Fredrik Maxe (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Rikard Wallström (Oscilio) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.41
R5	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Fredrik Maxe

17th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Italo Molina (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Alex Moynagh (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Heiden (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Christofer Lindholm (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Magnusson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Oscar Ålund (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Data Doll MKII	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Gravy Bones	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Paul Petersson-Rebelo

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Lewis Day (Dash, Database) - Expected: 50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Martin Andreasson (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Andreas Björnsson (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Klas Bergholtz (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Jarrett Yu (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Thomas Haugmo

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Teo Rutisson (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Magnusson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jordy Pereira (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dromai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Niklas Bengtsson

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Rikard Wallström (Oscilio) - Expected: 45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Marcus Karlsson (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Blitz	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.