Calling: Las Vegas 2025 - Scurv, Stowaway (Sealed)

Scurv, Stowaway

38 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jesse Kennon

5th • 8-0-0

38%

Meta

+4.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Maxwell Martrich (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Rich Pauls (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Derek Chiu

dropped • 7-1-0

62%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Emanuel Zayas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Peter Beck (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Tagg (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Evan Dyck (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.42
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Shane Martin

dropped • 7-1-0

75%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Neet (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Chris Rowland (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Cedric DeRouchie (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alan Hoang (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs John Milner (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Justin Law

dropped • 6-1-1

62%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Logan May (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs christian gilbert (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alex Hamilton (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Carlos Romero (Unknown)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.42
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Draw	✗	0.46	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Anthony Pham

dropped • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Blake Ayotte (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Porter Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Brandon Phillips (Unknown)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Ryan Miller (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Parker Pemberton

dropped • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jason Irons (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Parth Patel (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Karan Gill (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Mint Carroll (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Rich Pauls (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Carter Barton (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

gabriel stallings

dropped • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.9

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Saldana (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Gamboa (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Angus Blaxall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.71
R8	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Benjamin Schneider

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mychael Gochee (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs CLARK Moore (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Lund (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Phillips (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Fuzzy Delp (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Cody McCarron

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Camacho (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Kreitzburg (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dakota Hill (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Drew Jacobsen (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Andres Trujillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Patrick R (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Rich Pauls (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.71
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Rothhaar

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jack Sayer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Evan Chilton (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Alex Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.97
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marcus Brown

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Flowers (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Oscar Villalobos (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Justin Evans (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Xavier Hines (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.97
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Mike Cortes

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Trevor Rich (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs David Sitrick (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Chris Tellez (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Trent Lennon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Caleb Dahlen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.97
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nathaniel Snyder

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Claire Stanfield (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Pham (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Law (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R3	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.97
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Nicholas Tagg

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Zak Miller (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Douglas Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Martin Morford (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Vince Hung (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Nicholas Korner (Unknown)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.42
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Sherman Darrenkamp

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jon Roth (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs nathan lapham (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Steven Leyva (Unknown)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Craig Krempels (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Drew Jacobsen (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Connor Davenport (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Connor Davenport

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Tickal (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Steven Caraher (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Chilgren (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rich Pauls

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Dien Tran (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jeff Kloosterman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs William Bradshaw (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Steven Suh (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Cody McCarron (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

brynn nieboer

dropped • 3-4-1

38%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Walker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Emanuel Zayas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Draw vs Catherine Powell (Unknown)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Brandon Flores (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Jeremiah Oldes

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Cole (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Bannigan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs andrew weas (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Derek Anderson (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Castro (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.80
R6	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Paul Chen

dropped • 3-2-2

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Youngjin Ki (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Fuzzy Delp (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Joshua Conner (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ignacio Lorenzo (Unknown)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Emery Powell (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Kyle Flowers (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Draw	✗	0.46	-

Leia Asp

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Troy Benton (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Andrews (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Wheeler (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Mayer (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Nick Morris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Caio Felipe Antonangelo

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs David Sitrick (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Ross Fontana (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Colin Ross

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Dumansky (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs William Weinberg (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mint Carroll (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michael McDowell (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Joe Santianna

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Brooks Mitchell (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Justin Gagliardi (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs sean Burke (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs David Roger Jr. (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Tarris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Alberto Ruiz

dropped • 2-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Caleb Engen (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Tegan Smerdon (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jackson DeWitte (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Tavres (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.65
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Colin Turner

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Bradley Tashman (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

James Potter

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Eric Mayer (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jake Landaiche (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Nelson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Addington (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.89
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Jose Garcia

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Grant Juaire (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Ramirez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Ross Fontana

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Garrett Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Matt Pollitt (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Caio Felipe Antonangelo (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Stanko

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Dean Carr (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mitchell Hoffmann (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Renz (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Ambrose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Joshua Conner

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Will Rea (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Paul Chen (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Gagliardi (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Julian Helgeson

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Madison Coates (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

John Paul Kilcrease

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Cutler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Michael Lawton

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Josiah Turner (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jeff Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Ian Daryl Bon

dropped • 0-2-1

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Douglas Levy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Porter Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Ryan Roper (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Draw	✓	0.60	-

Blaine Pascu

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Huey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Mayer (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Pjhay Manalo

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Phillips (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Kindberg (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nelson Lagat (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Tabitha Stehman

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Xavier Robles (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Bernal (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.