Calling: Las Vegas 2025 - Marlynn (Sealed)

Marlynn

155 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jimmy Niro Demers

5th • 7-1-0

62%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Andrews (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Austin Revera (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Kenny Tran (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Nicholas Porter

dropped • 7-1-0

75%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mychael Caywood (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Rogers (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Foiles (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Connor Davenport (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Micah Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.83
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ryan Rich

dropped • 7-1-0

38%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Shawn Walker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Cole Torres (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Eric Holmes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Garrett Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alex Becker

dropped • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Brandon King (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Fuzzy Delp (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Xavier Byrne (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Alex Tyler

dropped • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ronit Patel (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Garrett Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Phillips (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michael Mendelsohn (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.60
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Charles Nash

dropped • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs David Wadley (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Owen Serviss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs aaron leblanc (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Josiah Turner (Unknown)

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Justin Addington (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Ed Bracamontes

dropped • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Davenport (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs John Tucker (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Colin Turner (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Blake Ayotte (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Sean Wilson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

John Cooper

dropped • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Charles Gilbert (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Lee Kimball (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs John Milner (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Eric Holmes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Luke Snyder (Unknown)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Carter Hulse (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Joseph Kaiser

dropped • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ian Fraser (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs christian gilbert (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Colin Ross (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Lau (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Owen Serviss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.60
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Evans

dropped • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Phillips (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Justin Gagliardi (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Talon Stradley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Steven Caraher (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Léo Vézinet

dropped • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jaylon Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Lance Buan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Yongji Yang (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Karlson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.17
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Mark Johnson

dropped • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Dantes Ha (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Montana Krasnov (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Villarreal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs John Milner (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew Renz

dropped • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Hayley Neighbors (Unknown)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Stanko (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kal Dschaak (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Sean Gray (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Evan McGrew (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Logan Brushart (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.83
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ryan Miller

dropped • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Romero (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs William Pearlman (Unknown)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Riddell (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Steve Pedersen (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Drew Jacobsen (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Sunny Yang

dropped • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Bernal (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Steven Suh (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Marcus Brown (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Luce (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Taylor Nifong

dropped • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Sam Rosenberg (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Evan McGrew (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Steven Becks (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Edward Knight (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Carter Barton (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Tagg (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.16
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyler Horspool

dropped • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tyruss Sennett (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Seiwert (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Arvin Bernardo (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Michaud (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.16
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

jordan johnson

dropped • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Rogers (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alan Hoang (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Craig Krempels (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Carl Meisner

dropped • 5-2-1

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Kreitzburg (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Yongji Yang (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Terrence Bell (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Unknown)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs Isaac Houk (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Brandon Phillips (Unknown)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Anthony Camacho

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Cody McCarron (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Mendelsohn (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jason Chan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lance Buan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Max McLean (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Steven Nemeth (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.17
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bryce Stroyek

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Legesse (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Bowar (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Karlson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Justin Evans (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Victor Mercado (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Carter Hulse

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Emmitt Luna (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Mint Carroll (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Blake Meier (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Bill Dower (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs John Milner (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs John Cooper (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cedric DeRouchie

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Hawkinson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Axel Sisbarro (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Shane Martin (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jack Sayer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Oscar Villalobos (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Jonathan Tarris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Christopher Yunck

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Michael Dailey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Eugene C (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Hawkinson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs nathan lapham (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Nicholas Korner (Unknown)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Edward Knight

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tim Lee (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Charlton Smith (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Brandon King (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Micah Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Emery Powell

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Luke Manship (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Paul Chen (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Dean Carr (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Crabtree (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.83
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

John Milner

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tanner Doran (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs John Cooper (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Carter Hulse (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Shane Martin (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicholas Mejac

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Blake Meier (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Garrett Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Sean Soderman (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Blake Ayotte (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Oscar Villalobos

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jacky Leung (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Austin Revera (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Charlton Smith (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Ames Olson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Suryan Bhatia

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Adam Leavitt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Shawn Adams (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Kenny Griggs (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Karlson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs christian gilbert (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Taylor Crawford

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Karlson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Oren Yishai (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Nolder (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Emery Powell (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Vince Hung (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Hammond (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Lau (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.83
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Tyler Luce

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Holland (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Wells (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Bader (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Yuki Lee Bender

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs David Romero (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Emanuel Zayas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dexter Canright (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Luce (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs David Roger Jr. (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Zach Huey

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ignacio Lorenzo (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs steven coker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Carter Barton (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Randall Sims (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

aaron leblanc

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Leo Shea (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Elena Kremen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Long Long (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Patrick R (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Xavier Byrne (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

nathan lapham

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Robert Trepany (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Douglas Levy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Trevor Rich (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Justin Gagliardi (Unknown)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andrew Christ

dropped • 4-3-1

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Josh Huey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Addington (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Marklin Spencer (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Eric Mayer (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Roth (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Austin Barta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.60
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Matt Schubert

dropped • 4-3-1

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Timothy cao (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Phillips (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Julio Adame (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Caleb Dahlen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Justin Liwag (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Draw vs Bryce Platz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs David Roger Jr. (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Andres Trujillo

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Steve Pedersen (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dawn DeLozier (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Chris Engelhardt (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Samuel Rogers (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Cody McCarron (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Eric Holmes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.60
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Brandon King

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tom Glowacki (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs michael mills (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Edward Knight (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jake Brose (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.83
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Chris Weidinger

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ian Fraser (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Freedman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs gabriel stallings (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Tristan Knowles (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Josh Huey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Craig Krempels

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dalton Cameron (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Trevor Rich (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Porter Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Evan Dyck

dropped • 4-4-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Danielle Williams (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Philip Luzod (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Eric Holmes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Evan McGrew

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Peyton Gage (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs michael mills (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Freedman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Vance Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Jose Badillo

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Stidger (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Chilton (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Austin Barta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Tarris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Matthew Wehmer

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Mendelsohn (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Andrews (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Bannigan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Carl Meisner (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Tom Glowacki (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs george flete (Unknown)

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Nicholas Lineman

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Fuzzy Delp (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jakob DeTemple (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Zak Miller (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Tristan Knowles

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Parsons (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Emmitt Luna (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Stuhr (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Chan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Xavier Robles (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Branden Adams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Blake Meier

dropped • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Igni Elegy (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Luke Manship (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Xavier Hines (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Omar Candelaria (Unknown)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Kayden Dschaak (Unknown)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Lexie Klasing (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Matthew Ignacio

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Erick Boeder (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Kenny Griggs (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Pigeon Nuggies (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dan Mui (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Kyle Flowers (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alan Hoang

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Evan Dyck (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs francisco guerrero (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jose Garcia (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matt Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Shane Martin (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.76
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.68
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Alex Hamilton

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matt Pollitt (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah House (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Evan Chilton (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Law (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Bryce Platz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Aaron Fagalde (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Jacob Bader

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Arvin Bernardo (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs JJ Lisonbee (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Hightower (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Luce (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Erick Avila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.01
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Justin Gottlieb

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Luke Putz (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Patrick R (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Mendelsohn (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.68
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Steven Caraher

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Zachary Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs John Tucker (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Davenport (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Brooks Mitchell (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Evans (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.01
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tommy Garnett

dropped • 4-3-0

14%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Johny Nguyen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Bryce Platz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Lance Buan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Colin Ross (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.13
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Mark Taylor

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Brian fischler (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kayden Dschaak (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Erick Avila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Benjamin Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.01
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Dakota Hill

dropped • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Steve Pedersen (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Luis Robles (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Cody McCarron (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Zachary Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Vance Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Branden Adams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Aurora Kynkor

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Sean Wilson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Micah Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Shereena Decano (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.79
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Brandon Hartman

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Hunter Pemberton (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Luce (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Joe Robles (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Christopher Dietz

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Porter Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Dahlen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.88
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Daniel Chilgren

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Parsons (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Carter Barton (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Karlson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Charlie Herren (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Connor Davenport (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.99
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Dien Tran

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Elsey (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Logan May (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Johny Nguyen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Caleb Engen (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Eric Pettinelli

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kal Dschaak (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Adam Jessell (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Shane Martin (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Talon Stradley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Eugene C

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Maddux Warren (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Wyatt Jackson (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Steve Pedersen (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Austin Revera (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.99
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jacob Hawkinson

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kenneth Thomas (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Erick Boeder (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Korner (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Elijah Webb (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.99
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jared Wyce

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Luke Snyder (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Cory Schmitt (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Charlie Herren (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Wilson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jonathan Michaud

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs David Bruner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Wilson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Holland (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Greg Sutcliffe (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Dexter Canright (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.64
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kevin Canales

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Chris Tellez (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Terrence Bell (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jared Tout (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Nathaniel Lansangan

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kris Ilich (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Elena Kremen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Beck (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Bill Dower (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Evans (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.79
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nick Webb

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Oren Yishai (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Phillips (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs christian gilbert (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Eli Barila (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Garrett Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Reuben An

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Lance Buan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Vance Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Axton Amentler (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Logan May (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.79
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ryan Solava

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Campbell (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs David Bruner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Kreitzburg (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Korbin Coop (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.64
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Steve Pedersen

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Andres Trujillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dakota Hill (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Grant Juaire (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Eugene C (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ames Olson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Terrence Bell

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Gavyn Uribes (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Carl Meisner (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jaylon Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michael Dailey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.64
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.99
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Cody Campbell

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Drew Jacobsen (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Nolder (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Gagliardi (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Lexie Klasing (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Evan Chilton

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jakob DeTemple (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jose Badillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Hamilton (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Max McLean (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Shereena Decano (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Nathan Crawford

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Wyatt Hicks (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Erick Boeder (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Mike Cortes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Xavier Robles

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tabitha Stehman (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Bill Dower (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Addington (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Monte Stewart (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tristan Knowles (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Karan Gill

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Blade Buelna (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Korner (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Marc Pearce (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Adam Hamilton-Sutherland

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Glowacki (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Hans Gripkey (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Catherine Powell (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Douglas Levy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Andrew Singleton

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs David Roger Jr. (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michael Clair (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Sam Rosenberg (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ames Olson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ayden Dukeshier

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Corey Harris (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Erick Boeder (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Austin Barta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Brian fischler

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Flores (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tristan Kilper (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Gilmartin (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Brooks Mitchell (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Caleb Engen

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Timothy cao (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Bannigan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dien Tran (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.95
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cole Torres

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Rogue Theory (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Greg Sutcliffe (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Logan Brushart (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Porter Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Dalton Cameron

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Oshiro (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Amy Hazel (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs sean Burke (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Eric Dauernnheim

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Cheaman Buckwalter (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Claire Stanfield (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jacob Neet

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Shane Martin (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jason Irons (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Trent Lennon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Bollier ()

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.71
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jeff Porter

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Lawton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Leo Shea (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Shawn Adams (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jesse Hudak

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Korner (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Saldana (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jeff Kloosterman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Josiah Turner (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.71
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Joe Robles

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs RJ Brown (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Troy Benton (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonny Espejo

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Lund (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Emery Powell (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Emanuel Zayas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Lineman (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.95
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joshua Phillips

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Evans (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Taran Alvey (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Axel Sisbarro (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Snyder (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.71
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Kyle Foiles

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nic Barnes (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Charles Gilbert (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Mark Morrison

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Gus Enger (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Carlos Romero (Unknown)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matan Uchen

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Korbin Coop (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jedi Abaja (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Witta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Randall Sims (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Matthew Bowar

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Turner (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Philip Luzod (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dung (Yung) Le (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.95
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Michael McDowell

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs James Koehler (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Carson Osborne (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Parth Patel (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Colin Ross (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Ryan Kidder

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Victor Diaz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Talon Stradley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jeremiah House (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs David Roger Jr. (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Unknown)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sean Gray

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Erick Avila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Luke Manship (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Bradshaw

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Anh Tran (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Holmes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.79
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Witt Lucas

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Biaggi (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Dawn DeLozier (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ryan Roper

dropped • 1-3-1

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Korbin Coop (Unknown)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Ian Daryl Bon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Biaggi (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Nick Morris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Draw	✗	0.40	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Evan Bridges

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Law (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Stidger (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Ross Fontana (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Lineman (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Biaggi (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Monte Stewart

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Loberg (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Oshiro (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ronit Patel (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Xavier Robles (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zachary Johnson

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Hammond (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs nathan lapham (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dakota Hill (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adam Jessell

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Shawn Adams (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Benjamin Hightower

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Demetris Guzman (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Lau (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bradley Tashman

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Colin Turner (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nando Navarro (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Marklin Spencer (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jamen Vedova (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Sadat Minick

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tristan Kilper (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andres Jaramillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Derek Anderson (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Steven Nemeth (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Amy Hazel

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs John Luiza (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Revera (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Dalton Cameron (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Axton Amentler

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Nemeth (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Gavyn Uribes (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Reuben An (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Romero

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jackson DeWitte (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Dominick Wolfgang

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Matt Muus (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Villarreal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Brooks Mitchell (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Erick Boeder

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Ignacio (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ayden Dukeshier (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Rabchenia

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Nolder (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Blade Buelna (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Castro (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

John Tucker

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Dain Ramirez (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Platz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Anthony

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Gripkey (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Winson Lee (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Barta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Timothy Bowar (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kenn Johnson

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tyson Au (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Devon Wilson (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Porter Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Kyle Gamboa

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Steven Leyva (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs gabriel stallings (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Sweany (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ames Olson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Luke Manship

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Emery Powell (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Legesse (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Gray (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Blake Meier (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Ferrell

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nick Morris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Shereena Decano (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Dantes Ha (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Montana Krasnov

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Elijah Webb (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Wilhite (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Elena Kremen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Nelson Lagat

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Soderman (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Barta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Pjhay Manalo (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Raheel Khalid

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs tyler whicker (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shawn Adams

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Cynthia Alonso (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Jessell (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jeff Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Stephen Murphy

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Justin Shaffer (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Micah Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Randall Sims (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Lexie Klasing (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Troy Benton

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jerick Fomocod (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Youngjin Ki (Unknown)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Leia Asp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Robles (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Will Rea

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Conner (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Eli Barila (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Mitchell Hoffmann (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Benjamin Andrews

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Wehmer (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Emily Mcmillan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Leia Asp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tarl Briggs

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Long Long (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Kreitzburg (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nando Navarro (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Andrew Loberg

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Monte Stewart (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Josiah Turner (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Fagalde (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Dorian Anaya

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Trent Smith (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Omar Candelaria (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marc Pearce

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs george flete (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs tyler whicker (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Karan Gill (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Micah Perino

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ignacio Lorenzo (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs DJ Breithaupt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Feng (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Andres Jaramillo

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Khoi Tu (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Karlson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Gray (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Caio Felipe Antonangelo (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

David Wadley

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Kayden Dschaak (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Rojas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Elyse Symmes

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Zak Miller (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ethan Ettinghausen

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Arvin Bernardo (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Anh Tran (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Hans Gripkey

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ames Olson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jarik Caisse (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Madison Coates

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs tyler whicker (Unknown)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matt Muus

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Owen Serviss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Dominick Wolfgang (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Michael Clair

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Tarris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Seiwert (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tracy Reeves

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alan Rogers (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Rodgers (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Monte Stewart (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Winson Lee

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Stidger (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Christopher Gripkey

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Justin Anthony (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Christopher Saldana

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs gabriel stallings (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Igni Elegy

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Claire Stanfield (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Blake Meier (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Fullingim

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Caleb Witta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Drew Jacobsen (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Robert Mills

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Goldfinger (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs sean Burke (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Adrian Mendez

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mychael Caywood

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.