Puffin at Calling: Las Vegas 2025

Puffin

83 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Chițu

5th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Gilmartin (Unknown)

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Abigail Welday (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.93
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Nicholas Tran

5th • 6-2-0

25%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Castro (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Erick Avila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Fuzzy Delp (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Talon Stradley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Luce (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Ethan Strickland-Robbins

dropped • 6-2-0

25%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Greg Mitchell (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Chris Engelhardt (Unknown)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs John Cooper (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs francisco guerrero (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Talon Stradley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.66
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.93
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Joshua Tavares

dropped • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Wilhite (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Justin Oursler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jose Garcia (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Carter Barton (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Lineman (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Fuzzy Delp (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.46
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Michael Mendelsohn

dropped • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Camacho (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Logan Brushart (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs francisco guerrero (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Reese Toomre

dropped • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.2

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs John Luiza (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michael McDowell (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs David Bruner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs John Milner (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.39
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.66
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Aaron Shantz

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Houk (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Lineman (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Fagalde (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Canales (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Alex Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.39
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Carter Barton

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Cory Schmitt (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jean Negron (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Chilgren (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Zach Huey (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Tavares (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Gilmartin (Unknown)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.39
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Dakota Cochran

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jaylon Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Robert Trepany (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Romero (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Douglas Levy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs gabriel stallings (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.93
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Drew Jacobsen

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Campbell (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Fullingim (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ignacio Lorenzo (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Trevor Rich (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Cody McCarron (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.76
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.07
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

John Kim

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Rolando Matta Jr (Unknown)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Khoi Tu (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Oshiro (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Claire Stanfield (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Austin Chinn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.78
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.93
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jonathan Riddell

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Corcoran (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jaylon Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Tegan Smerdon (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Cory Schmitt (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs David Bruner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Evan McGrew (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Matt Johnson

dropped • 5-3-0

25%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Leia Asp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Ramirez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Emery Powell (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Matthew Greenleaf

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kenneth Thomas (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Coleman Beam (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dean Carr (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs christian gilbert (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alex Hamilton (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Austin Barta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Micah Johnson

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mitchell Hoffmann (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Stephen Murphy (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Caleb Witta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Edward Knight (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.39
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Mint Carroll

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Trossman (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Carter Hulse (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Colin Ross (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Dawn DeLozier (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.46
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Porter Jones

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Wells (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Cole Torres (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Craig Krempels (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.31
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.66
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Ravi Sharma

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs sean Burke (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs James Potter (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs george flete (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Jose Badillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.31
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.39
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Tsubasa Ueda

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Renz (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jose Garcia (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Sam Rosenberg (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Ignacio (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Bollier ()

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Cole (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R7	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Andrea Biaggi

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Johny Nguyen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Wyatt Hicks (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Roper (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Randall Sims (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.66
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.93
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Joshua Lau

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Roper (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Hightower (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Claire Stanfield (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Xavier Hines (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Lexie Klasing (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Kyle Flowers

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Hayley Neighbors (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Robert Trepany (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Wilhite (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Paul Chen (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Tom Glowacki (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Ignacio (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Eric Mayer

dropped • 3-5-0

38%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs James Potter (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick R (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Bollier ()

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Christ (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Leia Asp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jeff Kloosterman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Vance Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.46
R4	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Ethan Phillips

dropped • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Alfaro (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Cheaman Buckwalter (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Corey Harris (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tarl Briggs (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jake Brose (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Mitchell Hoffmann (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs brynn nieboer (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Andrea Biaggi (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.07
R8	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mitchell Hoffmann

dropped • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Micah Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Stanko (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Will Rea (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Victor Diaz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Frailey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Brandon Flores (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Omar Candelaria (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Logan Brushart

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Chris Engelhardt (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Carlos Alfaro (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Mendelsohn (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Cole Torres (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.60
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Mykel Kramer

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Simon Wonser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Angus Blaxall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Taylor Stuhr (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Steven Becks (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Logan Brushart (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.90
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Shimon Bandiel

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Corey Harris (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Campbell (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matan Uchen (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs gabriel stallings (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.75
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.07
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Tyler Stammer

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Robert Potter (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Crabtree (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs John Milner (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Justin Oursler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Sean Wilson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Vince Hung (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.71
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.89
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jake Brose

dropped • 3-3-1

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Branden Adams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Victor Diaz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jeff Kloosterman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Samuel Wells (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon King (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Draw	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.53
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Aaron Fagalde

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Adam Fischer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Loberg (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Josh Huey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Charlton Smith (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Hamilton (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Patrick R

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Bowar (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Eric Mayer (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Unknown)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Oshiro (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Gottlieb (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs aaron leblanc (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Cody McCarron (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.71
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Tom Glowacki

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon King (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Tickal (Unknown)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Wehmer (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Kyle Flowers (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jared Contaldi

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Abigail Welday (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dan Mui (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Craig Krempels (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Owen Serviss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.87
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Cory Schmitt

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Carter Barton (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Pigeon Nuggies (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jared Wyce (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Steven O'Reilly (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jeff Kloosterman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.04
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dan Mui

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Logan Blankenship (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Ignacio (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.87
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Florin-Cristian Loghin

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Wilson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.04
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jamen Vedova

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Wyatt Jackson (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Bradley Tashman (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Karlson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jonathan Castro

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Zak Miller (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Rabchenia (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Carlos Daniel Zamora Salazar (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Ryan Baker

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jake Brose (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Bernal (Unknown)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Ronit Patel (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Kenny Griggs (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shereena Decano

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Holmes (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Martin Morford (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Ferrell (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Evan Chilton (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Tyler Goodridge

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Logan Blankenship (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dan Mui (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Campbell (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Maxwell Martrich (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Xavier Hines (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.04
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Tyson Au

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Xavier Hines (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Phillip Stephenson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Gagliardi (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Wyatt Jackson

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Taran Alvey (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jamen Vedova (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Eugene C (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs tyler whicker (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Caleb Dahlen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.04
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Yongji Yang

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Burnett (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Carl Meisner (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Villarreal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

sean Burke

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Robert Mills (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Dalton Cameron (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs CLARK Moore (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.87
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Samuel Wells

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Porter Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Luce (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jake Brose (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tegan Smerdon

dropped • 2-2-1

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Michael Thorington (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Alberto Ruiz (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Adam Kershaw (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.75
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bill Dower

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jason Watkins (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs george flete (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Xavier Robles (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.63
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Carlos Daniel Zamora Salazar

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Logan May (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Snyder (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Demetris Guzman (Unknown)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Stephenson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Castro (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.00
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Kindberg

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Pjhay Manalo (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Grant Juaire (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tyson Au (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Logan May

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Carlos Daniel Zamora Salazar (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Law (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dien Tran (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Trent Lennon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Reuben An (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.00
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Long Long

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tarl Briggs (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs aaron leblanc (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Tarris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dean Carr (Unknown)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ronit Patel

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Trent Lennon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Fisher Johnson (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Monte Stewart (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.84
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Samuel Rogers

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Leo Shea (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Michael Thorington (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Andres Trujillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jeremiah House

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Eli Barila (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Hamilton (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Kidder (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Roth (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Robert Potter (Unknown)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Lund

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Skylar Waidhofer (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Zak Miller (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Catherine Powell (Unknown)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Nolder

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Rabchenia (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Cody Campbell (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Rogue Theory

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Cole Torres (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nick Morris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Steven Becks

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Luis Robles (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kenny Tran (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jackson DeWitte

dropped • 1-2-1

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Luis Cisneros (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs David Romero (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Erick Avila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Draw	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Alan Rogers

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Sayer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Korbin Coop (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Derek Anderson

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Braden Wooldridge (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Greg Sutcliffe

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Steven O'Reilly (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs William Garrison (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Cole Torres (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Michaud (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

JJ Lisonbee

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Tucker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Garner (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jaylon Jones

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Terrence Bell (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Nicholas Kreitzburg

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Carl Meisner (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tarl Briggs (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Cody McCarron (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Solava (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Taylor Stuhr

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Vince Hung (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Burnett (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tristan Knowles (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Coleman Beam

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jarik Caisse (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Wyatt Hicks

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Marklin Spencer (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Biaggi (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kris Ilich

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Xavier Byrne (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Nick Morris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Draw	✗	0.42	-

Alexander Burnett

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Yongji Yang (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Stuhr (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Devon Wilson

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Dung (Yung) Le (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Kenn Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Gavyn Uribes

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Terrence Bell (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Axton Amentler (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Leo Shea

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs aaron leblanc (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Rogers (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jeff Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Tanner Doran

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs John Milner (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Garner (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dantes Ha (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

andrew weas

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Randall Sims (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Engelhardt (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Ryan Greget

dropped • 0-1-1

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Jonathan Holland (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Phillip Stephenson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Charlie Keller-Golden

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Luke Putz

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Gottlieb (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Grant Juaire (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mychael Gochee

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Mason O'Mara (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jon Roth

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Justin Shaffer

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Stephen Murphy (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.