Gravy Bones at Calling: Las Vegas 2025

Gravy Bones

180 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Hayden Jeanson

dropped • 7-0-1

100%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Joe Santianna (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jared Wyce (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Vince Hung (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Shane Martin (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Draw vs Henry Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Henry Gomez

dropped • 7-0-1

100%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Wells (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Matt Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Emery Powell (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Sunny Yang (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Draw vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Jordan Jalbert-Ross

2nd • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Ferrell (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Ambrose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs David Bruner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Griffin Meyers

3rd • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Stephenson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Johnson (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Edward Knight (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Shawn Dhaliwal

3rd • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Justin Addington (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Abarca (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alex Cassidy

dropped • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Gilmartin (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Schalich (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jamen Vedova (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Tavares (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andrew Padlesky

dropped • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Elyse Symmes (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Nolder (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Brandon Abarca

dropped • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matt Garner (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Baker (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Josiah Turner (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Canales (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Michael Mendelsohn (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Casey Knepley

dropped • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs John Cooper (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Caio Felipe Antonangelo (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Mark Morrison (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Shereena Decano (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Alex Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Logan Brushart (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Mint Carroll (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs christian gilbert (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Devon Porcher

dropped • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Bollier ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Catherine Powell (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Tarris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Canales (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Justin Law (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Michael Jaszczur

dropped • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Winson Lee (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dean Carr (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Christopher Higashi

dropped • 6-1-1

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Colin Turner (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Cole (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs Justin Law (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs CLARK Moore (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Draw	✓	0.54	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Josh Huey

dropped • 6-1-1

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Andrew Christ (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Justin Addington (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Fagalde (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Bollier ()

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Kenny Griggs (Unknown)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Jason Rolfe

1st • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Catherine Powell (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Platz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Charlton Smith (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Tristan Kilper (Unknown)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Nicholas Tagg (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Andrew Lorenz

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alex Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Steven Caraher (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Xavier Byrne (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Micah Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs John Kim (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Andrew Mendelsohn

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Elyse Symmes (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs John Kim (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Justin Liwag (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Bader (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs aaron leblanc (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Chandler To

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mark Morrison (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Caleb Witta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cody Williams

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Chilgren (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Douglas Levy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Micah Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Daniel Brouillet

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Sean Soderman (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Hightower (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Zach Huey (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Oscar Villalobos (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Evan Brook

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Axton Amentler (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tristan Kilper (Unknown)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Shane Martin (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Evan Herndon

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Riddell (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Neet (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Solava (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Joshua Crabtree (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Talon Stradley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Franche Tan

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Wells (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Conner (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tegan Smerdon (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Josiah Turner (Unknown)

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jamen Vedova (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Alan Hoang (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs David Bruner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Garrett Johnson

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ross Fontana (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lee Kimball (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Nick Webb (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Unknown)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Graham Soloway

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Billy Uribes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Yongji Yang (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Kyle Schalich (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Gui Cohen

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tyruss Sennett (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Timothy Bowar (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Terrence Bell (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Unknown)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Isaac Brooks

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.2

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Rabchenia (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jean Negron (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Sean Gray (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs george flete (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs David Roger Jr. (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Jacob Baugh

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Luce (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Robert Cutler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Watkins

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Bill Dower (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Demetris Guzman (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dean Carr (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Douglas Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Lexie Klasing (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Eugene C (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Zach Huey (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Jeremiah Gardner

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Michelle Chmura (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Bollier ()

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Owen Serviss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Kyle Foiles (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Wyatt Jackson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Drew Jacobsen (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

John Zapata

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Flores (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michael Lawton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Wilson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Matt Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Josiah Turner (Unknown)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.34
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonathan Tarris

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Michael Clair (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Long Long (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Joe Santianna (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jose Badillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Cedric DeRouchie (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Justin Oursler

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Pedro Esaki (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Flowers (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Ramirez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Johny Nguyen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kristopher Kraemer

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Charlie Keller-Golden (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Steven Suh (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Crabtree (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Bryce Platz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Marcus Brown (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Luis Maderas

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Foiles (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Martin Morford (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Austin Chinn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jose Badillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Owen Serviss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nathanael Frautschy

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Brooks Mitchell (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs brynn nieboer (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Villarreal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jason Feng (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs george flete (Unknown)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Connor Davenport (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.78
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Noah Clark

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jeff Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Michael Metallo (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Douglas Levy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Cole (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs gabriel stallings (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Mint Carroll (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Philip Parker

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs William Pearlman (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Reuben An (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Christ (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Thomas Johnson-Averette

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Trent Lennon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Korner (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Tyler Zeringue

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Branden Adams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Edward Knight (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Dalton Cameron (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs aaron leblanc (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Vince Hung

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Taylor Stuhr (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dawn DeLozier (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Tagg (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Martin Morford (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

christian gilbert

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Hunter Pemberton (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Law (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nick Webb (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Victor Mercado (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

CLARK Moore

dropped • 5-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jedi Abaja (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs sean Burke (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Abigail Welday (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Johnson

dropped • 5-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Vance Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Derek Anderson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs MOISES LOPEZ (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Colin Marshall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Oscar Villalobos (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Dien Tran (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Garrett Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Isaac Houk

dropped • 5-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Cynthia Alonso (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Johny Nguyen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alex Hernandez (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Shawn Walker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jason Chan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs Carl Meisner (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Nicholas Lineman (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Josh Lind

dropped • 5-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Gripkey (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Ambrose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs gabriel stallings (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs Dalton Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Evan Dyck (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Austin Barta

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alejandro Gonzalez-Lara (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Justin Anthony (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Carlos Alfaro (Unknown)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Andrew Christ (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Austin Chinn

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Talon Stradley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Fisher Johnson (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Eli Barila (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Unknown)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs John Kim (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Brandon King (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Dan Groseclose

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Amy Hazel (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Solava (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Connor Davenport (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Matt Schubert (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.34
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

David Bruner

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Michaud (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Solava (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jared Tout (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Riddell (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Roger Jr.

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Max McLean (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Korbin Coop (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Kidder (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Joe Santianna (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Matt Schubert (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Eric Holmes

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Justin Fernandes (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Julio Adame (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs William Bradshaw (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs John Cooper (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Ramirez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Andres Trujillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Fuzzy Delp

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Lineman (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Paul Chen (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Peter Beck (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.78
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Ian Siczewicz

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Pigeon Nuggies (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs David Bruner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Coleman Beam (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Rich Pauls (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Justin Evans (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Isaak Krut

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Corcoran (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dan Mui (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Mint Carroll (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joe Canton Encarnacion

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Madison Coates (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andres Trujillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Fuzzy Delp (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Witt Lucas (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jared Tout (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Dakota Cochran (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Ames Olson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Johny Nguyen

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Biaggi (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Houk (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dien Tran (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Korner (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Justin Gagliardi (Unknown)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonah Overholt

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Andres Jaramillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Long Long (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Baker (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Yongji Yang (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Evan Dyck (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joshua Villarreal

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Carson Osborne (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Luis Robles (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Yongji Yang (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Addington (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Kayden Dschaak (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Justin Addington

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Christ (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Huey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Xavier Robles (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs James Potter (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Oren Yishai (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Joshua Villarreal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Owen Serviss

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matt Muus (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Randall Sims (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Steven Nemeth

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Axton Amentler (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Douglas Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Sadat Minick (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Wilhite (Unknown)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Anthony Camacho (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Xavier Byrne (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Talon Stradley

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Austin Chinn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Kidder (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Evans (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tee Thebeau

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alex Rodgers (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Adam Jessell (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Parth Patel (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Xavier Hines

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Emily Mcmillan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tyson Au (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Cole (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Blake Meier (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Bryce Platz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Yasunari Sakuma

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Steven Sweany (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kristopher Kraemer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Pham (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Andres Trujillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.34
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

francisco guerrero

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Bannigan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michelle Chmura (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jason Feng (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Brandon King (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Kenny Tran (Unknown)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Mendelsohn (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

JONATHAN HENLEY

dropped • 4-2-2

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Roth (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs CLARK Moore (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Gilmartin (Unknown)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs Paul Chen (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Jonathan Bollier ()

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Draw	✓	0.54	-
R8	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ames Olson

dropped • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Hans Gripkey (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Tout (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs David Sitrick (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Gamboa (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Steve Pedersen (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Oscar Villalobos (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bryce Platz

dropped • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Skylar Waidhofer (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs John Tucker (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Alex Hamilton (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Draw vs Matt Schubert (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Xavier Hines (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Caleb Dahlen

dropped • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs RJ Brown (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Randall Sims (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Schubert (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Wyatt Jackson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Mike Cortes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dalton Gomez

dropped • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Douglas Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Charlie Keller-Golden (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tristan Knowles (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Talon Stradley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jake Landaiche (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Matt Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Randall Sims

dropped • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs andrew weas (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Caleb Dahlen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Stephen Murphy (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matan Uchen (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Owen Serviss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Luke Snyder (Unknown)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Andrea Biaggi (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Zach Huey (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Alex Fraser

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Castro (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ross Fontana (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Lau (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Daniel Cole

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Adam Cook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Xavier Hines (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Carlos Romero (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Joshua Crabtree

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Caio Felipe Antonangelo (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Cody Campbell (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Max McLean (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Emery Powell (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.34
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Witt Lucas (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs CLARK Moore (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jeff Kloosterman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Edward Knight (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Lexie Klasing

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Wilhite (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jakob DeTemple (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Stephen Murphy (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Cody Campbell (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Blake Meier (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Nathanael Hunt

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Catherine Powell (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Feeney (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Arvin Bernardo (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kenny Griggs (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jeff Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Cole (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sean Wilson

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Michaud (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jared Wyce (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Luke Snyder (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thaminda Edirisooriya

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Seiwert (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Adam Kershaw (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michael Metallo (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Steven Leyva (Unknown)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Vance Jones

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Reuben An (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Chris Tellez (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Flores (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Dakota Hill (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Evan McGrew (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Eric Mayer (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Xavier Byrne

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kris Ilich (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dexter Canright (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Victor Mercado (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jedi Abaja (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs aaron leblanc (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Steven Nemeth (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Branden Adams

dropped • 3-3-2

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Jake Brose (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Adam Leavitt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Draw vs Matthew Wheeler (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Kayden Dschaak (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Flores (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Dakota Hill (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Tristan Knowles (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Draw	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Dung (Yung) Le

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Devon Wilson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jerick Fomocod (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tom Morris (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Porter Jones (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Caleb Dahlen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joshua Frailey

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Cook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Braden Wooldridge (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Arvin Bernardo (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Mitchell Hoffmann (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Caleb Dahlen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Omar Candelaria (Unknown)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nick Morris

dropped • 1-6-1

100%

Meta

-3.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs steven coker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Ferrell (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Kris Ilich (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Rogue Theory (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Roper (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Victor Diaz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Leia Asp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Draw	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Brandon Flores

dropped • 1-7-0

100%

Meta

-3.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Brian fischler (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Justin Fernandes (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Emily Mcmillan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Vance Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Branden Adams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Mitchell Hoffmann (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs brynn nieboer (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Abigail Welday

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Trossman (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Billy Uribes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tom Glowacki (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Luke Snyder (Unknown)

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs CLARK Moore (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.45
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexander Karlson

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Chilgren (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jamen Vedova (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.56
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Angus Blaxall

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kent O’Neal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs gabriel stallings (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Phillips (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Victor Mercado

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs TCGTed Grabow (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alyssa Carden (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier Byrne (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Josh Huey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs christian gilbert (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Daniel Ramirez

dropped • 3-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs DJ Breithaupt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dain Ramirez (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nando Navarro (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jose Garcia (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Holmes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

MOISES LOPEZ

dropped • 3-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Ettinghausen (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Bader (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Daniel Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Johny Nguyen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Matt Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.56
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Zak Cargin

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dantes Ha (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs David Romero (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Tom Glowacki (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs nathan lapham (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.56
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jeff Kloosterman

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Danielle Williams (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jake Brose (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Ratliffe-Francoeur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Mayer (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.45
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Caleb Witta

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Fullingim (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Steven O'Reilly (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matan Uchen (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Micah Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Tristan Kilper (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Erick Avila

dropped • 3-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Sean Gray (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Jackson DeWitte (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Billy Uribes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Draw	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Max McLean

dropped • 3-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs David Roger Jr. (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Ryan Goldfinger (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matt Garner (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Evan Chilton (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Camacho (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Blake Ayotte

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jason Feng (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Cheaman Buckwalter (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Brooks Mitchell

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kent O’Neal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Brian fischler (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Claire Stanfield

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Igni Elegy (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs John Kim (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Douglas Levy

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs nathan lapham (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Dakota Cochran (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Elena Kremen

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ronnie Lloyd (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs aaron leblanc (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Montana Krasnov (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Omar Candelaria (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Phillips (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jack Sayer

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Enos (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alan Rogers (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Steven Sweany (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Dawn DeLozier (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jared Tout

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Alex Hernandez (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ames Olson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Omar Candelaria (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs David Bruner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Chan

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Morris (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Dumansky (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Camacho (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Sean Soderman (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Tristan Knowles (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Liwag

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Dakota Hill (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Ambrose (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Steele (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Matt Schubert (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marc Mehlenbacher

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Enos (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs sean Burke (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ben Rojas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Martin Morford

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kayden Dschaak (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Shereena Decano (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Tagg (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Vince Hung (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Oren Yishai

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Webb (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Emily Mcmillan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Stidger (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Dantes Ha (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Addington (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peter Beck

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Omar Candelaria (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Chris Rowland (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Fuzzy Delp (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Randall Robinson

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Devon Wilson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Mike Cortes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Samuel Wells (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.60
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.66
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Thomas Roth

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jake Landaiche (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Fraser (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jeremiah House (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs michael mills (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Christ (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Zak Miller

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tagg (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Castro (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Elyse Symmes (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Lund (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Chris Rowland (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Lineman (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Victor Diaz

dropped • 2-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Kidder (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Blade Buelna (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jake Brose (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Mitchell Hoffmann (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Nick Morris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Addison Woodward-Parrish

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Lance Buan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Smith (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michael Metallo (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Gottlieb (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Biaggi (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Benjamin Fraser

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Leia Asp (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Roth (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Anthony Ambrose

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Rolando Matta Jr (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Justin Liwag (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Michael Stanko (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.72
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kyle Schalich

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs David Sitrick (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Johnson (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Wilhite (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Rothermel

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Fagalde (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Martin Morford (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Arvin Bernardo

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Ettinghausen (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Austin Revera

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Khoi Tu (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Villalobos (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Amy Hazel (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Eugene C (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Benjamin Freedman

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mark Martin (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Robert Potter (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Evan McGrew (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Charlie Herren

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mason O'Mara (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs steven coker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michael Thorington (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jared Wyce (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Chilgren (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Colin Marshall

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ben Rojas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs brynn nieboer (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Carlos Alfaro (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Gomez

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jamen Vedova (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs JJ Lisonbee (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matt Muus (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Will Rea (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.67
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dylan Tucker

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs JJ Lisonbee (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Owen Serviss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alyssa Carden (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Blake Ayotte (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Elijah Webb

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Montana Krasnov (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Gilmartin (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jason Irons (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alex Rodgers (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Emily Mcmillan

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Xavier Hines (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Andrews (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Flores (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jake Landaiche

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Roth (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Justin Fernandes (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs James Potter (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Feng

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Blake Ayotte (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Wheeler (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Micah Perino (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Oshiro

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Dalton Cameron (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Monte Stewart (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Carlos Alfaro (Unknown)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick R (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs John Kim (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Lance Buan

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Reuben An (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Camacho (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Maxwell Martrich

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kayden Dschaak (Unknown)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Michael Dailey

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Sweany (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Burnett (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Terrence Bell (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Shawn Walker

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Thorington (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs DJ Breithaupt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs brynn nieboer (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.72
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Emanuel Zayas

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jake Smith (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs brynn nieboer (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Trent Lennon

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ronit Patel (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Logan May (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Mike Cortes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Jarik Caisse

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Coleman Beam (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Hans Gripkey (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Robert Cutler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Nelson

dropped • 1-1-2

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Anh Tran (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Michelle Chmura (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Timothy Bowar (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs James Potter (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Anthony Campbell

dropped • 1-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Solava (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Chris Tellez (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Unknown)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Ben Rojas

dropped • 1-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs William Garrison (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs David Wadley (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Sitrick

dropped • 1-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Schalich (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mike Cortes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Ames Olson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Caio Felipe Antonangelo (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Philip Luzod

dropped • 1-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kal Dschaak (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Adam Fischer

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Fagalde (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Vance Jones (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Snyder (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alex Slotnick

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Gavyn Uribes (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Anh Tran

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Ettinghausen (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Billy Uribes

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Joe Ellis (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Erick Avila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cheaman Buckwalter

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Blake Ayotte (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Tavres (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Stidger

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Badillo (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Winson Lee (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Douglas Jones

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Tagg (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Nemeth (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lucas Bannigan

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Wehmer (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Luis Cisneros

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jackson DeWitte (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Gottlieb (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Phillip Stephenson

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Greget (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tyson Au (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Carlos Daniel Zamora Salazar (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Jason Irons

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Elijah Webb (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jakob DeTemple (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

steven coker

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nick Morris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Charlie Herren (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Zach Huey (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Ryan Goldfinger

dropped • 1-1-1

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Robert Mills (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Max McLean (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adam Cook

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Cole (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Eli Barila (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adam Kershaw

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Alex Rodgers (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tegan Smerdon (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Axel Sisbarro

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Phillips (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jean Negron

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Carter Barton (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joshua Westbrook

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Feeney (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Parth Patel (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Julio Adame

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jake Smith (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Holmes (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Schubert (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Robert Cutler

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jarik Caisse (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

DJ Breithaupt

dropped • 0-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Daniel Ramirez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Micah Perino (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Shawn Walker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adam Leavitt

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Branden Adams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cavin Saravanan

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Christ (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Greg Mitchell

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Gagliardi (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Bollier ()

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kent O’Neal

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Angus Blaxall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Steele (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Brooks Mitchell (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Luis Robles

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Becks (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Villarreal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dakota Hill (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Samuel Parsons

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tristan Knowles (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Chilgren (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Simon Wonser

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alex Hernandez (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Aaron Williams

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Maxwell Martrich (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gus Enger

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Suh (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

John Luiza

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Amy Hazel (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Peyton Gage

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Evan McGrew (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Omar Candelaria (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ronnie Lloyd

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Elena Kremen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Hammond

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jacob Wells

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Mott

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ricardo Rua (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.