Puffin at Calling: Las Vegas 2025

Puffin

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Chițu

5th • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

10.8

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs christian gilbert (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R15 Draft

Round 15: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

10.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.34
R10	Draft	Marlynn	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.11
R11	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.57
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.79
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.94
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.52	2.09
R15	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Nicholas Tran

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

8.8

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Joshua Tavares (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R15 Draft

Round 15: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

8.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	Draft	Marlynn	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.11
R11	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.57
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.79
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.52	2.09
R15	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Reese Toomre

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

7.9

Diff

35:65

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

7.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.74
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.95
R13	Draft	Marlynn	35%	Win	✗	0.64	3.19
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Mendelsohn

dropped • 2-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Draw vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.57
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.48	-
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Ethan Strickland-Robbins

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.57
R10	Draft	Marlynn	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.46
R11	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R14	Draft	Marlynn	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Joshua Tavares

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs gabriel stallings (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 36:64

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R11	Draft	Marlynn	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.