Calling: Las Vegas 2025 - Gravy Bones (Draft)

Gravy Bones

42 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jason Rolfe

1st • 8-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

11.3

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Josh Huey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R15 Draft

Round 15: Win vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R16 Draft

Round 16: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R17 Draft

Round 17: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

11.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.11
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.22
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.38
R14	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R15	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.59
R16	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.78
R17	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.89

Jordan Jalbert-Ross

2nd • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.4

Surp

7.3

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Shane Martin (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R15 Draft

Round 15: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R16 Draft

Round 16: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R17 Draft

Round 17: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

7.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00
R10	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.97
R11	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.66
R12	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.26
R14	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R15	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.59
R16	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.78
R17	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Griffin Meyers

3rd • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

5.9

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Shane Martin (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R15 Draft

Round 15: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R16 Draft

Round 16: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.12
R10	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.67
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.80
R13	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.87
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	1.01
R16	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shawn Dhaliwal

3rd • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

8.5

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Henry Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R15 Draft

Round 15: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R16 Draft

Round 16: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

8.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.12
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.25
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.31
R13	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.42
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75
R15	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.63
R16	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Isaak Krut

dropped • 6-0-0

100%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

9.7

Diff

70:30

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Nicholas Tagg (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

9.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.80
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	1.25

Andrew Lorenz

dropped • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

8.5

Diff

70:30

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Justin Law (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Michael Mendelsohn (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

8.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.80
R10	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.59
R11	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.60
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Jacob Baugh

dropped • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

9.4

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Kristopher Kraemer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

9.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.75
R12	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.74
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	2.03

Alex Cassidy

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

7.2

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

70:30

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

7.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.98
R12	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.74
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Andrew Mendelsohn

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

6.4

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Justin Oursler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

6.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.45
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	1.07
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Daniel Brouillet

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

7.1

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Justin Law (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Michael Mendelsohn (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Jonathan Tarris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

7.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.89
R11	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.75
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Devon Porcher

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

7.9

Diff

70:30

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Brandon Abarca (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

7.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.74
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Evan Brook

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

6.6

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Sunny Yang (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.45
R11	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.60
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Franche Tan

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

7.2

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Vince Hung (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Justin Evans (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

7.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.45
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.89
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Gui Cohen

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

6.9

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Matthew Renz (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.31
R10	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.45
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Noah Clark

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

7.4

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Mendelsohn (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Ryan Miller (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Jonathan Tarris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

7.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.45
R11	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.60
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Philip Parker

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

6.5

Diff

70:30

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Anthony Pham (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Garrett Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

6.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.80
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyler Zeringue

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

7.1

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Sunny Yang (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

7.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.74
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Zapata

dropped • 3-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.3

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Josh Huey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Draw vs Kristopher Kraemer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Kristopher Kraemer

dropped • 3-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

4.8

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Nicholas Korner (Unknown)

70:30

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs John Cooper (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Renz (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Draw vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R11	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.60
R12	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.74
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Nathanael Frautschy

dropped • 3-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

5.1

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Draw vs Justin Oursler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Anthony Pham (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs christian gilbert (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	1.07
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Chandler To

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

5.2

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.45
R11	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.60
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cody Williams

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.8

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.45
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Tarris

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.6

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Justin Evans (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

70:30

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Anthony Pham (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.98
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Luis Maderas

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.6

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.60
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

christian gilbert

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.9

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Josh Huey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.60
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Garrett Johnson

dropped • 2-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Philip Parker (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Draw vs Vince Hung (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.74
R13	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Andrew Padlesky

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Henry Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	1.16
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brandon Abarca

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.89
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.74
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Casey Knepley

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Higashi

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Unknown)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Vince Hung (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Hayden Jeanson

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.31
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R12	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Isaac Brooks

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Josh Huey

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs christian gilbert (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Michael Jaszczur

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Shane Martin (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R11	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.91
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Graham Soloway

dropped • 1-4-1

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Draw vs Michael Mendelsohn (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	Draft	Puffin	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R14	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Vince Hung

dropped • 1-4-1

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Draw vs Garrett Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Jason Watkins (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Jason Watkins

dropped • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs John Milner (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

R13

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Nicholas Korner (Unknown)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Vince Hung (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jeremiah Gardner

dropped • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Josh Huey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs John Milner (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Thomas Johnson-Averette

dropped • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Henry Gomez

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Justin Oursler

dropped • 0-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Draw vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Evan Herndon

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Garrett Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.