Calling: Las Vegas 2025 - Marlynn (Draft)

Marlynn

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jimmy Niro Demers

5th • 4-3-0

14%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

7.4

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Henry Gomez (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

R12

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R15 Draft

Round 15: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

7.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.63
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.79
R12	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.71
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.28
R15	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

John Milner

dropped • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

10.6

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Jason Watkins (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Nicholas Korner (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

10.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.28
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.47
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Ed Bracamontes

dropped • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

9.0

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Jason Watkins (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs John Milner (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs John Cooper (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Josh Huey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

9.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.90
R11	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.47
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.66

Léo Vézinet

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

7.2

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs John Cooper (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Puffin) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Joshua Tavares (Puffin) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs John Zapata (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

7.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Puffin	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R11	Draft	Puffin	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.18
R12	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.47
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Mark Johnson

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

7.2

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Miller (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Alex Tyler (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

7.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R13	Draft	Puffin	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.40
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.66

Matthew Renz

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

8.0

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Jason Watkins (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Drew Bosco (Unknown)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

8.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.71
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Sunny Yang

dropped • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

8.2

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Brandon Abarca (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

8.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.71
R10	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.66

Alex Becker

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

6.3

Diff

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

65:35

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Puffin) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Charles Nash (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Puffin	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	Draft	Puffin	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.17
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.66

Alex Tyler

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

6.7

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Garrett Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.71
R10	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.28
R13	Draft	Puffin	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.66

Joseph Kaiser

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

7.4

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Chandler To (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs christian gilbert (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Win vs Vince Hung (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

7.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.28
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.47
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.66

Ryan Rich

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

6.1

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Brandon Abarca (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

R14

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Unknown)

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.71
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.09
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R14	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33

Taylor Nifong

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

6.0

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R11

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R10	Draft	Puffin	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R11	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.66

Tyler Horspool

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

6.3

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Justin Oursler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R14 Draft

Round 14: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.71
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.09
R12	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.47
R14	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

jordan johnson

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

5.5

Diff

65:35

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Reese Toomre (Puffin) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Parker Pemberton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Puffin	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.97
R10	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R13	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R14	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.65

Nicholas Porter

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.2

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Casey Knepley (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Evan Brook (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs jordan johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R14 Draft

Round 14: Win vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Puffin) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.71
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	Draft	Puffin	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.50

Charles Nash

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Graham Soloway (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Cody Williams (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Garrett Johnson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R13 Draft

Round 13: Loss vs Alex Becker (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.05
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R13	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Cooper

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 Draft

Round 10: Win vs Nicholas Korner (Unknown)

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.50
R11	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Miller

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R9 Draft

Round 9: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R11 Draft

Round 11: Win vs Justin Law (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 Draft

Round 12: Loss vs gabriel stallings (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.55	3.13
R12	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Justin Evans

dropped • 1-1-0

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

5.1

Diff

45:55

R9 Draft

Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Tarris (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 Draft

Round 10: Loss vs Franche Tan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R9	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	5.13
R10	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.