Calling: Florence 2024 - Verdance (Sealed)

Verdance

24 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Clements

1st • 7-1-0

50%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Xavier Aubert (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Francesco Lorenzi (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs David Chirulescu (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.45
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.44
R6	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.53
R7	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.06
R8	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Luca Barcella

27th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Gaetano Ferrara (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Del Moro (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Maniša Njegomir (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jan Vaculík (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Francesco Motta (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.18
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.91
R7	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.61
R8	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Antonio Briola

33rd • 5-2-1

38%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Gaia Bormida (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tiziano Biagetti (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Adrien Krifa (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R5	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.76
R6	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.91
R7	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Thomas Steinle

17th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tuomas Lampinen (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Enrico Collini (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kamil Rejman (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Gergely Kovacs (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Riccardo Rotondo (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Szots Daniel ()

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R5	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.70

Eser Unger

45th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Brogi (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Francesco Motta (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Gianluca Razza (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs filippo Serafini (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Edoardo Galli (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Valerio Colonna (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.44
R6	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R7	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93

Bastien LAVIGNON

dropped • 4-3-1

88%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Szary (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Karl Naylor (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Draw vs Riccardo Santini (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Francesco Lorenzi (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Gaetano Ferrara (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Markus Reichhart (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Alessandro Segradin (Unknown)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-
R5	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.06
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonny Chapman

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Robert Crone (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Trinci (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Valerio Colonna (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Stefano Galli (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs filippo Serafini (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Piotr Krzempek (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.81
R8	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Riccardo Rotondo

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Davide Cimmino (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Raven (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alessandro Esposto (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Lorenzo Miele (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Thiago Almeida Cunha (Unknown)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Unknown)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Francesco Lorenzi

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Christian Fichtner (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Oscilio) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Matteo Brunori (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Massimiliano Sacco (Unknown)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Simon Mercier (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Oscilio	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Mat Campbell

dropped • 2-6-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Nicastro (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alicja Kucharska (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Edoardo Galli (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Axel Gay (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Piotr Krzempek (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Alessandro Segradin (Unknown)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Gaia Bormida (Unknown)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Alessandro Esposto (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.45
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Simon Mercier

dropped • 2-6-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Munceanu (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Claudio Paradiso (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Trinci (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Robert Crone (Unknown)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Unknown)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Francesco Lorenzi (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alessandro Jaselli

dropped • 1-7-0

50%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Gaia Bormida (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alessio Candido (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Markus Reichhart (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Davide Giacca (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs William Borwick (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Isaac Murray

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tudor Todea (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Gaetano Ferrara (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Unknown)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.69
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gennaro Ciampa Mango

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Francesco Lorenzi (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs René Rosenberg (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Francesco Buoso (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Unknown)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Stefano Galli

dropped • 2-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Francesco Zampieri (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Alessandro Esposto (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Simone Pirota (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Colombo (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matteo Brunori

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Danilo Calcagno (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Bottino Valerio (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Motta (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alessandro Brogi (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Riccardo Santini (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Francesco Lorenzi (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Francesco Buoso

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Trinci (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tudor Todea (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs William Borwick (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Gabe Sher (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jan Vaculík

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mario De Stefano (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Federico Sirri (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Luca Barcella (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Raven (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.56
R4	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Mario De Stefano

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jan Vaculík (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Davide Masella (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Crone (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Davide Ricci (Unknown)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lorenzo Ralli

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Andrea Colombo (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Karl Naylor (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Fichtner (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Long Dao

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Francesco Zampieri (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Martin Holík (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Artur Wysocki (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Francesco D'Amendola

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Simon Mercier (Verdance) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Adrien Krifa (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Fichtner (Aurora) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed	Aurora	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Leoluca Colletti

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Urfer (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Scandalis (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Siméon Gruel

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Florian) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.