Calling: Florence 2024 - Aurora (Sealed)

Aurora

16 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Paul van Gijssel

2nd • 7-1-0

88%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Diego Paoletti (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Edgar Strogonov (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Cavazzini ()

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Michael Feng (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Unknown)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.40
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.85
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jacob Trossing

3rd • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Bottino Valerio (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mateusz Sass (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs René Rosenberg (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Mark Henderson ()

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Nicolas Scandalis (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R6	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.85
R8	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

filippo Serafini

dropped • 4-3-1

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Massimiliano Sacco (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Stefano tosoni (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Thiago Almeida Cunha (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Eser Unger (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Gaia Bormida (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Arnold Baars

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ian Zhang (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Caregnato (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tom Tucek (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Viet Pham (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Nicolas Scandalis (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Stefano Meoni ()

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sebastian Kleiner

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Riccardo Santini (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kamil Rejman (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Federico Sirri (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs David Chirulescu (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Diego Paoletti (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Mark Henderson ()

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R7	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Valerio Colonna

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alessandro Esposto (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tiziano Biagetti (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Szots Daniel ()

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Mateusz Sass (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Eser Unger (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R5	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.85
R8	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Gaetano Ferrara

dropped • 3-4-1

62%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Luca Barcella (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alessandro Segradin (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Draw vs Massimiliano Sacco (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Botond Szujó (Unknown)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Davide Giacca (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.13
R2	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.81
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Riccardo Santini

dropped • 2-5-1

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Giuseppe Cervone (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Davide Cimmino (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Draw vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matteo Brunori (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Enrico Collini (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Angelo Zaccardi (Unknown)

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Massimiliano Sacco (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Draw	✗	0.47	-
R5	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.67
R6	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lorenzo Tarateta

32nd • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matt Schubert (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Stefano Meoni ()

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Stefan Stäger (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Arnold Baars (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Artur Wysocki (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.70
R6	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.84
R7	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00
R8	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Federico Sirri

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Alessandro Brogi (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jan Vaculík (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Francisc Loghin (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs William Borwick (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Tudor Todea (Unknown)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R5	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.84
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tuomas Lampinen

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Steinle (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Michał Sierszulski (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tiziano Suran (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Tibor Csonka (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Michał Krzyżyk (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R5	Sealed	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christian Fichtner

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Lorenzi (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Adriano Izzi (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Ralli (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Diego Paoletti (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.65
R4	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.86
R5	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Andrea Nicastro

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mat Campbell (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Edoardo Galli (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Sealed	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Simone Pirota

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Edoardo Di Napoli (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Elista Cyrek (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mateusz Sass (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Stefano Galli (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Bottino Valerio

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matteo Brunori (Verdance) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Schubert (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Verdance	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Edoardo Di Napoli

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Simone Pirota (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Viet Pham (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Matteo Balugani (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.