Katsu, the Wanderer at National Championship 2026

Katsu, the Wanderer

Katsu, the Wanderer

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

John Paul Baltazar

56th • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

5:95

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Jerald Bea (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 4:96

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Juan Miguel del Castillo (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Felix (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Jarl Vetreiði

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Vizconde (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Zaballero (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

Pleiades, Superstar

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Christopher Banac (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Josiah Jr Gosingtian (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R9	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

Floyd Paul Fortaleza

68th • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

Arakni, Huntsman

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Harvey Jade Jadena (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 11:89

Dash I/O

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Ormille Busmente (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

Katsu, the Wanderer

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Albert Miko Mariano (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Dash I/O

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Ericsson Marquez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

Fai, Rising Rebellion

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Victor Felix (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Dash I/O

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Randrex Toledo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

Pleiades, Superstar

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Christopher Banac (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R10	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joshua Vizconde

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Neil Bautista (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Dash I/O

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Malabed (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

Kassai of the Golden Sand

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Donovon Jose Panganiban (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Clint Hennesy Porras Cagang (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Victor Miguel III Lim

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Agupitan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

Jarl Vetreiði

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Janbert Dela Cruz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

Kassai of the Golden Sand

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rayland Luiz Duarte (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alec Xavier Que Esteves (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.85
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Albert Miko Mariano

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Emmanuel Daguinod (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

Jarl Vetreiði

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Vizconde (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Katsu, the Wanderer

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Floyd Paul Fortaleza (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jian Botor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.86
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Jason Oliver Tico

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

Dash I/O

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Malabed (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

Kassai of the Golden Sand

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joniel Ibasco (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paolo Angel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

Pleiades, Superstar

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Banac (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.