Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at World Championship: Barcelona

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chanon Puttaree

76th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

6.1

Diff

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Frederic Bernard (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Hechtberger (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

Fai, Rising Rebellion

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Dromai

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nikos Tavoulareas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33

Iyslander, Stormbind

25:75

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jin Han Toh (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.08
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.80
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.95
R14	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	25%	Win	✗	0.75	3.50

75th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

6.2

Diff

Iyslander, Stormbind

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs See Atlantis (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Francisco Leiva Espanhol (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mark Johnson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

Iyslander, Stormbind

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs David Yau (Unknown)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

6.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	25%	Win	✗	0.75	2.75
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.10

Matteo Favretto

128th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Unknown)

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Unknown)

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Dash I/O

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Unknown)

Bravo, Star of the Show

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Zach Bunn (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Bradley Wayburne

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs CHIU CHUNG-YI (Unknown)

Iyslander, Stormbind

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Liam Canning (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Freddy Friedrich (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68

Iyslander, Stormbind

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Unknown)

Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Erik Baalhuis (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Yip (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33

Katsu, the Wanderer

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

Fai, Rising Rebellion

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arkadiusz "Rasaad" Sioda (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matúš Martinko (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

Iyslander, Stormbind

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michał Biernacki (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mat Collett (Unknown)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.60
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Allen Lau (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nova Chan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.24
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Maciej Kawończyk

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

Kano, Dracai of Aether

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Søren Madsen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bartosz Jankowski (Unknown)

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.