Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at World Championship: Barcelona
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
76th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.9
Surp
6.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Frederic Bernard (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Martin Hechtberger (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 36:64
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Nikos Tavoulareas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
Round 14: Win vs Jin Han Toh (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
6.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R13 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Win |
75th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
6.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs See Atlantis (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Francisco Leiva Espanhol (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mark Johnson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
Round 11: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs David Yau (Unknown)
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
6.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Win |
| R12 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Win |
128th • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Unknown)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Unknown)
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Zach Bunn (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
25:75
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs CHIU CHUNG-YI (Unknown)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Liam Canning (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Freddy Friedrich (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Unknown)
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Erik Baalhuis (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 20:80
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dennis Yip (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
2.1
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Arkadiusz "Rasaad" Sioda (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matúš Martinko (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43
Round 4: Win vs Michał Biernacki (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Mat Collett (Unknown)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Win |
| R11 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Allen Lau (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
Round 3: Win vs Nova Chan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Unknown)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
100%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Søren Madsen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bartosz Jankowski (Unknown)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.