Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2026

Fai, Rising Rebellion

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bernhard Hinna

5th • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christian Bergesen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tov Hanssen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.03
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Øyvind Garberg

10th • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steffen Bergo Jenssen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bendik Mihle Hansen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Bergesen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.55
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Ivan Ekeli

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Johnsen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mats Severinsen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.