National Championship 2026 - Norway - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tov Hanssen

3rd • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Erik Gjone (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Hove (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bernhard Hinna (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bernhard Hinna (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Steffen Bergo Jenssen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.99
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Anton Karlsson

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Victor Johansen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Erik Gjone (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Johnsen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.94
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Erik Skinstad

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bernhard Hinna (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Torbjørn Tollaksen (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Erik Gjone (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.