Jarl Vetreiði at National Championship 2026 - China
Jarl Vetreiði
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
16th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
3.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs 宇田 龚 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Wang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 魏 文彬 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bangliang Liu (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Xiyu Cai (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs HAN Xintong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs 快乐 长存 (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Zyggy Starlight | 15% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.