National Championship 2026 - Cyprus - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexandros Modestou

5th • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yiannis Bero (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Afxentis Vafeiadis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Kyriakou (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nicolas Kyriakou (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Timotheos Chrysanthou

15th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas Lazarides (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Giannis Koumidis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Bersun Manavoğlu

16th • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Afxentis Vafeiadis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Giannis Koumidis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christos Iosifidis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.