Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026 - Cyprus

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Theodosis Pafitis

7th • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

Zyggy Starlight

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas Kyriakou (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 42:58

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christos Iosifidis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yiannis Bero (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.69

Giannis Koumidis

13th • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ioannis Makrygiannis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bersun Manavoğlu (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Timotheos Chrysanthou (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.