Vynnset, Iron Maiden at World Championship: Osaka
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Round 2: Win vs Renzo Schietgat (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs motohiro makigano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31
Round 5: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.