National Championship 2026 - Japan - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yukihiko Ikeda

59th • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Terukazu Goshima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs hironobu watanabe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Shigeru Masuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yohei Kurihara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Yoshihiko Kato (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.20
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.63

Junya Iwamoto

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuji Okita (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jyunnosuke Yamamoto

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 23:77

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs yuuta nojiri (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.04
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.