Ira, Scarlet Revenger at National Championship 2026 - New Zealand
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
37th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Rowley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mae Jane Collett (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41
Round 3: Win vs Thomas Falconer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43
Round 8: Loss vs Sam Davison (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Stepan Sopin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Nick Kerr (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.