FaB-Results

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship 2026 - New Zealand

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joshua Baines
31st • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
!
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Stepan Sopin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jesse Williams (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43
Fai, Rising Rebellion
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nick Kerr (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marko Zutic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
Prism, Awakener of Sol
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 22:78
Fai, Rising Rebellion
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Edward Kim (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Ben Thomas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
Will Evans
32nd • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
!
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Quazi Tahmeedzaman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Day (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74
Kassai of the Golden Sand
!
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zach Johnson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mae Jane Collett (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Liam Spronken (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
25:75
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ross Newson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74
Fai, Rising Rebellion
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Adam Little (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.