National Championship 2026 - Romania - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexandru Ungureanu

13th • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bogdan Popa (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Munceanu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Szabolcs Egri

14th • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexandru Guțalov (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Vulpe Razvan

15th • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kolleck Adrian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Traian Costea (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andor Galfi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.40
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Alex Munceanu

11th • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandru Guțalov (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexandru Ungureanu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.