Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2026 - Romania
Dorinthea Ironsong
1 players • Match results by round
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12th • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
0.7
Surp
0.2
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Edoardo Pinna (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
0.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 85% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.