Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nevin Aysar Madian (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs justin widjaja (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Soetrisno (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ramadhany Candra Arif Putra (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ting Hee Yeoh (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Pudding Tam (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Odi Winata (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
14%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gilbert Timothy (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Giang Hoang (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Adi Guna Sodikin (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Arif Ardiningrum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Edwin Sitanto (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nugroho Haryoputro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Evandra Tamzil (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
Round 2: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Josiah Cheah (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Satriandaru (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Putra Ahmadani Pratikto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dave Poetera (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hoàng Đặng Minh (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matteo Layl Madian (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Gondowijoyo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs martinus indra (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs William Budi Surya (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Matthew Sugianto (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 80:20
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Handy Wijaya (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gian Arnandi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Evandra Tamzil (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Edwin Sitanto (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Juwonardo Budijanto (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.