Battle Hardened: Baltimore 2025 - Chane, Bound by Shadow (LL)

Chane, Bound by Shadow

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brodie Spurlock

1st • 9-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Edwards (Dash I/O) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Jo Burch (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Mara Faris (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

80:20

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Noah Biros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 78:22

80:20

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Noah Biros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 78:22

70:30

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R9 LL

Round 9: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	LL	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.10
R3	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.24
R4	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.22
R6	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.22
R7	LL	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.34
R8	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.57
R9	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90

Mara Faris

3rd • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Tatiana Parada (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

70:30

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Adams (Dash I/O) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Josh Perry (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Violet Dold (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Craig Krempels (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	LL	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.11
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R4	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.44
R6	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R6	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.55
R8	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aymen Kabel

24th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

80:20

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathon Harty (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

55:45

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Violet Dold (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Dayton Smallwood (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Dexter Phan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Kellen Smallwood (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.