Puffin at Battle Hardened: Taipei 2025

Puffin

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nicholas On

2nd • 6-1-0

57%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Harry Lindner (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Manuel Succari (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Chen Wei Li (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs haruka sonoda (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Kyrios Mak (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Yi Jun Loh (Unknown)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.70
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.07
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

諒人五嶋

3rd • 6-1-0

57%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Troy Benton (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs John Zapata (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs 岡西達也 (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Corwin Benton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.89
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Tigran Grigorian

9th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Rocko Yan (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Paul Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs "Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Husan Bang Chang (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Khoi Dinh (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.75
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

(William) Wai Leem Au Yong

31st • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs YuDi Chen (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Kelvin Clarke (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ting Hee Yeoh (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Colin Tang (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Louie Yazon (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Manuel Succari (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.90
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Ting Yen Mao

37th • 2-4-1

57%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Andy Wang (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Masaru Yoshizawa (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Marlon Ilagan (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Draw vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Lane Thomason (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs David Alfonso (Unknown)

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Johnny Zen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Draw	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jani Leinonen

dropped • 3-2-1

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs WeiHao Huang (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Yi Jun Loh (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Rhasta Chuah (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs haruka sonoda (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.02
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

logan boyd

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Emmanuel Onate (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs David Alfonso (Unknown)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Peter Bråss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Lim (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Louis Mook

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Marlon Ilagan (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Kuan Li (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Paul Johnson (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Troy Benton (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Tsuyoshi Kaji

dropped • 3-1-1

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Benjamin Lim (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Louie Yazon (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Draw	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.84
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Eric Dauernnheim

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs CK Lee (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Luca Barcella (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Colin Tang (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.00
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chen Wei Li

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Wei Jian Gan (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kenji Enomoto (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas On (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Juan Kin Lim (Unknown)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Esmond Heng

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Crause (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Khoi Dinh (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alan Lane (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ping How Ng (Unknown)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joniel Ibasco

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Peng Joon (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Li (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Rhasta Chuah (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs David Alfonso (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Zachary Gardiner

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jani Leinonen (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Hyeonjin Kim (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Hakim Green (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Khoi Dinh (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Allan begovic

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Troy Benton (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs YuDi Chen (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Yi Jun Loh (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hakim Green

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Johnny Zen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tomoya Ohta (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Succari (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Luca Barcella

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs "Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Paul Johnson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Colin Li (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Mook (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Eric Chu

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.