Marlynn at Battle Hardened: Taipei 2025

Marlynn

26 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Spencer Horton

1st • 6-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Gugel (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Mohd Imran Jamil (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Troy Benton (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs (William) Wai Leem Au Yong (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Kenji Enomoto (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Kuan Li

12th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Alba Sanz (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Louis Mook (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kelvin Clarke (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Unknown)

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jose Lau (Unknown)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Angelito Jr Eusebio

18th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs David Crause (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Keith Yong (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Louis Mook (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jani Leinonen (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Wei Jian Gan (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Shing Tsang

20th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs logan boyd (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Colin Tang (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kelvin Clarke

32nd • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Emmanuel Onate (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs (William) Wai Leem Au Yong (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kuan Li (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Louie Yazon (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Eugene C (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Peng Joon (Unknown)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Manuel Succari

33rd • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nils Klaper (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas On (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Hakim Green (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs John Zapata (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ping How Ng (Unknown)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs (William) Wai Leem Au Yong (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

John Zapata

34th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Khoi Dinh (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Peng Joon (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs 諒人五嶋 (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Manuel Succari (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Johnny Zen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Mohd Imran Jamil (Unknown)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.01
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

尚規石坂

dropped • 3-2-1

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Yuanji Li (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs CK Lee (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Rocko Yan (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Draw vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Hyeonjin Kim (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Husan Bang Chang

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Sinho Seol (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kelvin Clarke (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Marlon Ilagan

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Mook (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Tan (Nickay) (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ting Yen Mao (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Johnny Zen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.99
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Troy Benton

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Allan begovic (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs 諒人五嶋 (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Wei Jian Gan (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Louis Mook (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Louie Yazon

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Colin Tang (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alan Lane (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alba Sanz (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Kelvin Clarke (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs (William) Wai Leem Au Yong (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Shao Lun Lu

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs WeiHao Huang (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Viet Pham (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lane Thomason (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Yuanji Li

dropped • 1-3-1

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Peng Joon (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Draw vs Andrea Mengucci (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Wei Jian Gan (Unknown)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

"Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ping How Ng (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Luca Barcella (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Viet Pham (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Connor Leverton

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Johann Dickson (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Colin Li (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peter Ward

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Juan Kin Lim (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Viet Pham (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

CK Lee

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs YuDi Chen (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ping How Ng (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rhasta Chuah

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Khoi Dinh (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Joniel Ibasco (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jani Leinonen (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Andy Wang

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ting Yen Mao (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Arthur Gugel

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ting Hee Yeoh (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicholas Wong

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Luca Barcella (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tomoya Ohta

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Hakim Green (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Holly Benton

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Mohd Imran Jamil (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jia Sheng Lee

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Hyeonjin Kim (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Seiichi Yasuda

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Satsuki Itagaki (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.