Battle Hardened: Bologna 2025 - Scurv, Stowaway (Sealed)

Scurv, Stowaway

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tigran Grigorian

2nd • 8-2-0

40%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.9

Surp

3.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jan Kučera (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mirko Macchia ()

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Tassini (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Brown (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Martynas Norbutas (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Mauro Annetta (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R9 Sealed

Round 9: Win vs Maximilian Schmidt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R10 Sealed

Round 10: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.11
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.33
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R6	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.48
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.59
R9	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.00
R10	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Matthew Brown

14th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Scandalis ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alessio Bouko ()

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs András Kovács (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Bartłomiej Cieślak ()

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Valerio Colonna

33rd • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Freddy Friedrich ()

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard ()

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Pizzetti ()

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jakub Kulpinski (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.32
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Erik Baalhuis

42nd • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Erik Skinstad (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Patrik Koller (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Edoardo La Rosa (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Mauro Annetta (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Emlyn Ingram ()

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Mika Vainio

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Victor Lima ()

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana ()

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Christian Hauck

dropped • 0-1-1

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Lorenzo Calderone ()

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.