Battle Hardened: Bologna 2025 - Puffin (Sealed)

Puffin

16 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tomasz Żelazko

5th • 6-2-0

25%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.7

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Michal Cwik (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tomasz Zalejski ()

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Mika Vainio (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Brown (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Lorenzo Pradella (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.76
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Martynas Norbutas

5th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jorge Jimenez (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana ()

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Maximilian Reichl ()

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Martin Holík ()

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jacob Clements

19th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Michael Lemerle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Pradella (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Cavazzini ()

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana ()

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Bartłomiej Cieślak ()

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.71
R5	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Mulato

26th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mika Vainio (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Maximilian Schmidt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs András Kovács (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Victor Sanchez ()

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Freddy Friedrich ()

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.60
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bogdan-Andrei Oros

27th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Marco Zappaterra ()

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Søren Madsen (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lancelot Errico ()

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Faustin Falissard ()

40:60

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Patrik Koller

43rd • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram ()

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Erik Baalhuis (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs None ()

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Viet Pham ()

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tomasz Zalejski ()

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Miroslav Košař (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Victor Lima ()

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.90
R7	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jakub Kulpinski

49th • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jorge Jimenez (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kamil Rejman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michał Zalejski (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Valerio Colonna (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Patrik Laprecka ()

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.89
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jakub Koenner

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Miroslav Košař (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs András Kovács (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Zhang ()

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Erik Skinstad

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Erik Baalhuis (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Simone Pagani ()

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Emad Kashy ()

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Simone Quartieri

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Macchia ()

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tore Eskeland (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Marco Zappaterra ()

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Žan Baumgartner ()

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana ()

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jaka Burnik

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Bartosz Ziemba ()

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alessio Candido (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michal Cwik

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Simone Pagani ()

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.93
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jonas Benzarti

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Massimo D'Amato (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michał Zalejski (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Miroslav Košař (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.93
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Massimo D'Amato

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Lemerle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Bartłomiej Cieślak ()

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Noah Cagle

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Søren Madsen (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Diego Paoletti ()

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Lancelot Errico ()

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alessandro Sgura

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Valerio Colonna (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.