Battle Hardened: Bologna 2025 - Gravy Bones (Sealed)

Gravy Bones

30 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Arthur Trehet

1st • 9-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.9

Perf

4.9

Surp

4.9

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matteo Lista (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Viet Pham ()

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Freddy Friedrich ()

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Maximilian Reichl ()

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 Sealed

Round 9: Win vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 Sealed

Round 10: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Thomas Harle

3rd • 8-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Guillermo Revilla (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tomasz Zalejski ()

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lukasz Bigos ()

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Martynas Norbutas (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 Sealed

Round 9: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.18
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.70
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.70
R9	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Maximilian Schmidt

3rd • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mauro Annetta (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ian Zhang ()

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matteo Lista (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Lorenzo Cavazzini ()

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Alessandro Tassini (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R9 Sealed

Round 9: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.44
R6	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.70
R9	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Brent Van de Staey

5th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Christian Hauck (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tore Eskeland (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Michal Cwik (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Mirko Macchia ()

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Martynas Norbutas (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R8	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kinga Piper Balázs

16th • 5-1-1

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs riccardo battaglia ()

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lewis Miller (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.56
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lorenzo Pradella

9th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Žan Baumgartner ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Michael Feng ()

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Clements (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Freddy Friedrich ()

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Alessandro Tassini

11th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Pizzetti ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Victor Sanchez ()

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Emad Kashy ()

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Martin Holík ()

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rob Catton

17th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Sergiu Morar ()

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Alessio Bouko ()

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Patrik Laprecka ()

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Lukasz Bigos ()

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Mauro Annetta (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Maurice Hostettler

18th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Michael Wachouschek (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Paul van Gijssel ()

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Pradella (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Erik Baalhuis (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Philip van Donselaar

24th • 4-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jakub Kulpinski (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Miele ()

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Martynas Norbutas (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Marcello Mutalipassi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Lorenzo Pradella (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs Ian Zhang ()

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.56
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed		50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Max Dieckmann

31st • 4-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Chițu ()

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Søren Madsen (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Bartłomiej Cieślak ()

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs Andrea Pizzetti ()

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed		50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Mihai Zorila

21st • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Maximilian Reichl ()

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Jimmy Nguyen

23rd • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Francesco Giorgio ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Marek Luczak ()

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Cavazzini ()

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Freddy Friedrich ()

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jan Kučera

25th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Calderone ()

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Žan Baumgartner ()

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nicolas Scandalis ()

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Bartosz Dominiak (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng ()

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Lorenzo Cavazzini ()

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sebastiano Zagatti

28th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Valerio Colonna (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michael Lemerle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alessandro Tassini (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Simone Pagani ()

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Marcello Mutalipassi (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daja Todesco

34th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Xiaoliang Yang (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Holík ()

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Zhang ()

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Viet Pham ()

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Erik Baalhuis (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Guillermo Revilla

37th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Lima ()

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Emad Kashy ()

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Calderone ()

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Lorenzo Pincolini ()

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Tim Heibrok (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Victor Sanchez ()

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R7	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bastien LAVIGNON

47th • 3-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Faustin Falissard ()

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Victor Lima ()

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Søren Madsen (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Jean Luka Zorko

44th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Lancelot Errico ()

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Caregnato ()

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Tore Eskeland (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Patrik Laprecka ()

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Valerio Colonna (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Marcello Mutalipassi

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Maximilian Reichl ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Zugna ()

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Miele ()

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Victor Lima ()

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bartosz Dominiak

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Pincolini ()

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Geoffroy Massard ()

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Martin Holík ()

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jan Kučera (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonny Chapman

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kamil Rejman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Maximilian Reichl ()

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Julien Erdreich

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Matteo Brunori ()

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michal Cwik (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tilen Blazinšek ()

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Erik Skinstad (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Michał Zalejski

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Pizzetti ()

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jorge Jimenez (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jakub Kulpinski (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.67
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Tore Eskeland

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs András Kovács (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram ()

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kamil Rejman

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Emad Kashy ()

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng ()

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jakub Kulpinski (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Lorenzo Tarateta

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs riccardo battaglia ()

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Zugna ()

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Zhang ()

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Lemerle

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Massimo D'Amato (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Wojciech Andrusewicz

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Mauro Annetta (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tilen Blazinšek ()

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Leoluca Colletti

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.