Battle Hardened: Bologna 2025 - Marlynn (Sealed)

Marlynn

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mauro Annetta

5th • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Erik Baalhuis (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Geoffroy Massard ()

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Michael Feng ()

40:60

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Matteo Lista

20th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.3

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Sergiu Morar ()

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Viet Pham ()

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Miroslav Košař (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Lancelot Errico ()

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Martin Holík ()

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tim Heibrok

46th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Pincolini ()

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Miroslav Košař (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng ()

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Victor Sanchez ()

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Guillermo Revilla (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Viet Pham ()

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Søren Madsen

50th • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Noah Cagle (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard ()

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Viet Pham ()

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jorge Jimenez (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jorge Jimenez

52nd • 1-6-0

86%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Martynas Norbutas (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Chițu ()

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jakub Kulpinski (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michał Zalejski (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Marco Zappaterra ()

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Søren Madsen (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Lorenzo Pincolini ()

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Miroslav Košař

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jan-Hendrik Brinkforth ()

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Heibrok (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Matteo Lista (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.64
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

András Kovács

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tore Eskeland (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Gennaro Ciampa Mango

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Victor Sanchez ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt ()

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Faustin Falissard ()

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lewis Miller

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ian Zhang ()

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos ()

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Maciej Szawica

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Martin Holík ()

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mauro Annetta (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Victor Lima ()

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alessio Candido

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Viet Pham ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs None ()

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jaka Burnik (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Edoardo La Rosa

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Victor Lima ()

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Maximilian Reichl ()

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Erik Baalhuis (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Kaloyan Nikov

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Patrik Laprecka ()

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R2	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthias Verbeeck

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jakub Kulpinski (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.64
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Thorbjørn Lind Jensen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tomasz Zalejski ()

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Pizzetti ()

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R2	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Xiaoliang Yang

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Paul van Gijssel ()

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana ()

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Wachouschek

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Bartłomiej Cieślak ()

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.