Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Tomasz Buda (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Stanislau Chykileuski (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs John Christensen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Francesco Lorenzi (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.