Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025 - Bulgaria
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 6-0-0
50%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
5.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Stoyan Stoyanov (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 44:56
Round 2: Win vs Valentin Popov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alexios Plomaritis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alex Kondov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Vasil Popov (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
Round 9: Win vs Alex Angelov (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.