Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025 - Bulgaria

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

3rd • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stef Ganchev (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Kassai of the Golden Sand

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yanko Spasov (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexios Plomaritis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.28
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.32
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.64
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Plamen Kutinchev

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ventsislav Iliev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Puffin, Hightail

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stoyan Stoyanov (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

Dorinthea Ironsong

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Valentin Popov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.