Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2025 - Bulgaria
Dorinthea Ironsong
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 1-1-1
67%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.1
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Pavel Ivanov (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22
Round 2: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Plamen Kutinchev (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Draw |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.