Marlynn at World Championship Qualifier 2025

Marlynn

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Paul van Gijssel

3rd • 6-1-1

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

65:35

R1 Draft

Round 1: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Puffin) - Expected: 64:36

R2 Draft

Round 2: Win vs Mark Henderson (Unknown)

R3 Draft

Round 3: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Unknown)

R4 Draft

Round 4: Win vs Michael de Kok (Unknown)

R5 Draft

Round 5: Draw vs Robert Crone (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Gabe Sher (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 Draft

Round 7: Win vs David Kuric (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Draft

Round 8: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Draft	Puffin	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.08
R2	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Draft	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.85
R7	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

David Kuric

5th • 4-2-1

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Draft

Round 1: Win vs Erik Baalhuis (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Draft

Round 2: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Unknown)

R3 Draft

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Unknown)

R4 Draft

Round 4: Win vs Sander Neeft (Unknown)

R5 Draft

Round 5: Draw vs Hao Ru Wu (Unknown)

45:55

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Merijn Poorthuis (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 Draft

Round 7: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Draft	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.98
R7	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Erik Baalhuis

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Draft

Round 1: Loss vs David Kuric (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Draft

Round 2: Win vs Daan Barten (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Draft

Round 3: Win vs David Moore (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Draft

Round 4: Win vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Unknown)

R5 Draft

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Kruijsen (Unknown)

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Michiel Flaton (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christopher de Bruijn

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Draft

Round 1: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Draft

Round 2: Loss vs Gary White (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 45:55

R3 Draft

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Wiercx (Unknown)

R4 Draft

Round 4: Loss vs René Van Hoorn (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Draft	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Moore

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Draft

Round 1: Win vs Tat Chuong Hua (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Draft

Round 2: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 Draft

Round 3: Loss vs Erik Baalhuis (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Draft	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Draft	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.