Puffin at World Championship Qualifier 2025

Puffin

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kaloyan Nikov

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Draft

Round 1: Win vs René Schep (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 Draft

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Draft

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Crone (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Draft

Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

R6 Draft

Round 6: Win vs Tom Kruijsen (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.17
R2	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.87
R6	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jimmy Nguyen

dropped • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 Draft

Round 1: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Marlynn) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 Draft

Round 2: Loss vs Merijn Poorthuis (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

R3 Draft

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Draft

Round 4: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Draft

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Draft

Round 6: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Draft	Marlynn	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Draft	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Draft	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Sebastiaan Knetsch

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Draft

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Draft

Round 2: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Puffin) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Draft

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Kruithof (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 Draft

Round 4: Loss vs Merijn Poorthuis (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Draft	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Draft	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Draft	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.