Fai at World Championship Qualifier 2025 - New Zealand
Fai
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
50:50
R1 Project Blue
Round 1: Win vs David Rowley (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 Project Blue
Round 2: Win vs Caleb Sinclair (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R3
R3 Project Blue
Round 3: Win vs Sean Yang (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R4 Project Blue
Round 4: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 Project Blue
Round 5: Win vs Jordan Schroder (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R6 Project Blue
Round 6: Win vs Nikola Campbell (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R6 Project Blue
Round 6: Win vs Nikola Campbell (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29
Round 7: Loss vs Sean Delaney (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fai | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Fai | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea | 70% | Loss |
3rd • 5-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 Project Blue
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Barlow (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R2 Project Blue
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Williams (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29
R3
R3 Project Blue
Round 3: Win vs James Wakefield (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Round 4: Loss vs Sean Delaney (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
50:50
R5 Project Blue
Round 5: Loss vs Nick Kerr (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 Project Blue
Round 6: Win vs Jayden Allan (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 Project Blue
Round 6: Win vs Jayden Allan (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R7
R7 Project Blue
Round 7: Loss vs Sean Yang (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Fang | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Fai | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Fai | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Fai | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi | 50% | Loss |
5th • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 Project Blue
Round 1: Win vs James Gilchrist (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R2
R2 Project Blue
Round 2: Win vs Arran Beamsley (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
70:30
R3 Project Blue
Round 3: Win vs Mark Tung (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R4 Project Blue
Round 4: Win vs Nick Kerr (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R5 Project Blue
Round 5: Win vs Sean Delaney (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R6 Project Blue
Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Schroder (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 Project Blue
Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Schroder (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Terra | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Fai | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Fai | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Fai | 50% | Loss |
14th • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
70:30
R1 Project Blue
Round 1: Win vs Brayden Rawlinson (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29
Round 2: Loss vs Mark Tung (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
70:30
R3 Project Blue
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Williams (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29
R4
R4 Project Blue
Round 4: Loss vs kenny forrester (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R5
R5 Project Blue
Round 5: Win vs Ross Newson (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo | 50% | Win |
17th • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 Project Blue
Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Schroder (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R2 Project Blue
Round 2: Win vs Brayden Rawlinson (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29
R3
R3 Project Blue
Round 3: Loss vs Gavin Wu (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
70:30
R4 Project Blue
Round 4: Win vs Michael Dunlop (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29
R5
R5 Project Blue
Round 5: Win vs Ryan Rinsma (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai | 50% | Win |
32nd • 1-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 Project Blue
Round 1: Loss vs Nick Kerr (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 Project Blue
Round 2: Loss vs kenny forrester (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R3
R3 Project Blue
Round 3: Loss vs David Marshall (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R4
R4 Project Blue
Round 4: Loss vs Jack Lewis Roy (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
70:30
R5 Project Blue
Round 5: Win vs Michael Dunlop (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea | 70% | Win |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 Project Blue
Round 1: Loss vs Gary Lynch (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Round 2: Loss vs Nikola Campbell (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oldhim | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.