Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Singapore
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
9th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Reynold Lam (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs M Ramzi (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Baron Chan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jayden Yap (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 75:25
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Theodore Tan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75
Round 6: Loss vs Yong Yi Chua (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 6: Loss vs Yong Yi Chua (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 15% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.