Marlynn at UK Nationals - Sunday 11:00 Am World

Marlynn

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Dyson

5th • 6-0-0

83%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.6

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Troth (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jack Warren (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Hills (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Robert Catling (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs David Calf (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Paul Farnell

3rd • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Walley (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Steven Christian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Declan Patrick (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nathan Hills (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Samuel Thomas (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Brown (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

David Calf

5th • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ella Brown (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Richard Lythe (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Thomas (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs David Dyson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.99
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonny Chapman

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Hannah Hancock (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Trevor Kerr (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Brown (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs David Dyson (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs James Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Damon Elgie

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mike Williams (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Ferguson (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Farrow (Unknown)

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Kane Wilson (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Thomas (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.10
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Kenworthy

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Faren Sheppard (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kiran Lee (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Ferguson (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Connor O'Sullivan (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs James Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Athena Halkia (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Neseyif-Deakin

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ashley Southwood (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Curry (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Zak Murray (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Richard Carr (Unknown)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.95
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Curry

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Carr (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jason Kelly (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kane Wilson (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Hannah Hancock (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Tyhrone Bennett

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Akers (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Konrad Paziewski (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Puffin) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Sealed	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Mike Williams

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Damon Elgie (Marlynn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Zak Murray (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.