UK Nationals - Sunday 11:00 Am World championship Qualifier - Gravy Bones (Sealed)

Gravy Bones

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

James Clark

2nd • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Marcus Archer (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Scott Morris (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kane Wilson (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Kenworthy (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Emlyn Ingram

5th • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jason Kelly (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tyhrone Bennett (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ben McConnochie (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Athena Halkia (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Rob Catton

1st • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Steven Christian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ben McConnochie (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Ferguson (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs David Calf (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Matthew Duggan

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Josh Williamson (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Appleby (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Richard Carr (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs David Calf (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jack Warren (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zak Murray

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Connor McLaughlin (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mike Williams (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Walley (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Paul Goodchild (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Robert Catling (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ella Brown

dropped • 1-4-1

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs David Calf (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Adam Cowan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Steven Christian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 54:46

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Draw vs Konrad Paziewski (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Harle

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Adam Cowan (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Catling (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Clements (Unknown)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Adam Cowan

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ella Brown (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Warren (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Craig Johnson (Unknown)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bruno Cracco

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Farrow (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Thomas (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Damon Elgie (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R4	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Connor McLaughlin

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Zak Murray (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Archer (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Thomas (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adam Mann

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Bill Stevenson (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Catling (Unknown)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Puffin) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Jason Kelly

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Curry (Marlynn) - Expected: 56:44

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Farrow (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.