UK Nationals - Sunday 11:00 Am World championship Qualifier - Scurv, Stowaway (Sealed)

Scurv, Stowaway

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Steven Christian

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Farnell (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Hannah Hancock (Puffin) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ella Brown (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Teague (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Sealed	Puffin	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kane Wilson

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Connor O'Sullivan (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Pontus Angerfors (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs James Clark (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Curry (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Damon Elgie (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.59
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Benjamin Troth

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs David Dyson (Marlynn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Craig Johnson (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.