Puffin at UK Nationals - Sunday 11:00 Am World

Puffin

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Rayner

3rd • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Unknown)

40:60

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Adam Mann (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tyhrone Bennett (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Robert Catling (Unknown)

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Richard Carr (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R4	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kiran Lee

5th • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Craig Johnson (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Trevor Kerr (Unknown)

40:60

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R5	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.04
R6	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Hannah Hancock

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ed Cardall (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Christian (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: 43:57

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Curry (Marlynn) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Scurv, Stowaway	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Robert Gillis

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Warren (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Felix Elias (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Teague (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bill Stevenson

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Mann (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Gravy Bones	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.