World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Italy - Vynnset (Blitz)

Vynnset

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Federico Lami

3rd • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Enigma, New Moon) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs filippo pirazzoli (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Tommaso Fabbri (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 71:29

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Riccardo Rotondo (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Diego Giacca (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs filippo pirazzoli (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Blitz	Enigma, New Moon	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Blitz	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.31
R6	Blitz	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.83
R8	Blitz	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro

5th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Federico Lami (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Riccardo Bonfiglioli (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Matteo Brunori (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Matteo Brunori (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	Blitz	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.81
R7	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Tommaso Fabbri

11th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Giovanni Fierro (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Federico Lami (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Andrea Milaneschi (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Matteo Frescucci (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.19
R2	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.93
R6	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matteo Frescucci

19th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Danilo Calcagno (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Matteo Brunori (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Enigma, New Moon) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Tommaso Fabbri (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Blitz	Enigma, New Moon	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.79
R6	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gennaro Ciampa Mango

20th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Massimo D'Amato (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Flavio Miani (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 71:29

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Danilo Calcagno (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R5	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.42
R6	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.