World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Italy - Aurora (Blitz)

Aurora

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Edoardo La Rosa

9th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Salvatore Valenti (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Massimo D'Amato (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R4	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.60
R5	Blitz	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrea Milaneschi

24th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs "Lello" Alessandro Stefanelli (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Simone Rainaldi (Unknown)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Salvatore Valenti (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Tommaso Fabbri (Vynnset) - Expected: 54:46

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Blitz	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Giovanni Fierro

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Tommaso Fabbri (Vynnset) - Expected: 54:46

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Alessandro Berganton (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.