World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Italy - Florian (Blitz)

Florian

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

filippo pirazzoli

1st • 8-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.0

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Davide Ierardi (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Roberto Andreocci (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Federico Lami (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Kayo) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Alessandro Pistelli (Kayo) - Expected: 65:35

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Federico Lami (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Kayo	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	Blitz	Kayo	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.48
R8	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Riccardo Di Cesare

10th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs massimiliano sansonetti (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Matteo Frescucci (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Riccardo Bonfiglioli (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs filippo pirazzoli (Florian) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Kayo) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Alessandro Tassini (Kayo) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Kayo	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	Blitz	Kayo	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Massimo D'Amato

21st • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Matteo Brunori (Kayo) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Berganton (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Kayo) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Edoardo La Rosa (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Kayo) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Kayo	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Kayo	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Kayo	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.